The Brazilian market may be affected by the recent changes in the Chinese economy in two ways. On the one hand, the fall of the Chinese stock market would increase the perception of risk in the international market, already shaken by the crisis in Greece. “As a result, investors tend to flee emerging markets or to charge a higher price to put money in these countries,” says Marcel Caparoz , an economist at RC Consultores .
The fall of the real against the dollar on Wednesday would already be a reflection of this movement leak of assets and emerging currencies. Between fears of a collapse in the Chinese market, the dollar reached R $ 3.23, the highest in three months. The Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, also closed down 1.07%.
“In addition, depending on how the crisis affects the Chinese economy, we can have a major impact on commodity prices and Brazilian exports in the medium term,” says Caparoz. He points out that today iron ore, soybeans and their derivatives account for a quarter of exports from Brazil – and China is by far the main market for these products. “These disturbances may hinder the recovery of the Brazilian trade balance in a time when the country seeks to resume growth,” agrees Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Gradual Investimentos.
by Gabi N.